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Oliver's Insights - The threat from Europe, how big?

24 November 2011 - This note looks at the threat to global and Australian growth over the year ahead flowing from the worsening crisis in Europe and what it means for investors.


The key points are as follows:

  • The European debt crisis is worsening, posing a major risk to global growth and the investment outlook for 2012. A mild recession in the Eurozone wouldn't be a major problem for the global economy, Asia and Australia, but clearly the risks are rising that it will be deeper recession.
Shares are good value for long-term investors, but the short-term outlook remains uncertain. A re-test of early October share market lows is looking likely. Watch for signs of European Central Bank quantitative easing and unlimited bond buying going forward.