Oliver's Insights - China's turn

 

21 October 2011 - This note looks at the recent outbreak of worries about a hard landing in China. 
The key points are as follows:
• Slowing exports, tight credit and a slowing property market suggest the risks regarding China have increased. Policy makers may also be slow to respond, resulting in further short-term uncertainty.
• However, so far there is no sign of a hard landing and while there are likely to be bouts of uncertainty, it is unlikely thanks to spending on social housing, solid consumer demand &and a likely easing in economic policy late this year or early next. But don't expect a re-run of the  4 trillion Renminbi stimulus that was seen in 2008-09 as public debt is higher today and it was ultimately overkill anyway.
• Chinese shares are cheap, but require monetary easing before their fortunes turn decisively.