Oliver's Insights - A (slightly) different cycle
This edition looks at the increase in the importance of emerging countries in the global economy and what this means for the economic/investment cycle and investors.
The key takeouts are:
- No matter how much economic and investment issues change, there will always be a cycle. In other words history may not repeat but it does rhyme.
- But the constrained outlook for the US and other developed countries and the relatively strong outlook for emerging countries, along with the emerging world becoming a greater proportion of global GDP than the developed world, makes this cycle a bit different.
- It has significant implications for investors pointing to a strategic bias towards emerging markets/Asian shares, commodities and Australian shares.
- It also suggests the next big asset bubble may be in emerging markets or related themes - but it has a long way to go yet.
